Guest Blogger: Box in a Cat

When I was little, the use deduction and logical assumptions were considered traits of a clever child. I was often told the story of Zhuge Liang, a brilliant tactician who lived in the era of the three kingdoms. In almost every occasion, Zhuge Liang manages to outwit an opponent which he does not personally know by correctly predicting his opponent’s behaviour. He has even outwitted Mother Nature herself on many occasions by predicting rain and the current of the wind at a particular time and place. His cunning employment of logical assumptions has earned him feats of legend. I enjoyed his stories; but not because of how he made his assumptions but because of the fact that the events miraculously turnout as he predicted. After all, even if he has made the most logical assumption and picked the best alternative based on the facts given, there is always a chance that things don’t turn out as he predicted. In fact, I would go as far as to say that the logical assumptions he made have little to do with his success.

If we assume that everything is interconnected and follows a certain collective laws of the universe, then universal determinism might apply. And in that case, what Zhuge Liang did was what he must have done and he could not have done it any other way. Suddenly, his ability to make conclusions based on logical assumptions is just part of a chain of inevitable events. And his feats no longer seem so impressive. Now assume that there is free will, the ability to deduce logical assumptions form known variables will be a relevant factor in Zhuge Liang`s victories. But the question is to what extent? To forecast weather, state to the art supercomputers and satellites are employed for the job and yet it is still difficult to forecast the weather accurately. There are simply too many variables to consider to accurately predicting future events. Now compare the factors and variables that a man could account for and the infinitely many that is out there; we soon realize how minute of information we have to make our assumptions. Suddenly anything that we predicted correctly based on our assumptions seems like a miracle. 

I take pride in my ability to make logical assumptions. The results based on the decisions I chose grounded on the assumptions I’ve made are often positive. But when I consider the infinitely many variables I did not account for and could not account for when forming my assumptions, I couldn’t help but to thank the gods that things worked out the way they have (and I’m not religious). When you realize how much the future is outside of your control, it is good to be lucky. And Zhuge Liang is a lucky man.

Loki